TO PREDICT THE FUTURE -- AN EVENING OF SCIENCE THEATER
SOME TOPICS INCLUDED IN THIS SEMINAR
EXCERPTS FROM TOPIC ONE -- --What it really means to predict the future:
Predicting the future is something humans have been trying to do almost since the beginning of written history. . . .
. . .
I'm going to tell you what it really means to predict the future, and I'm going to explain the techniques that are used by the people -- the experts in their fields -- whose work it is to forecast, plan and predict. We shall see that the fundamentals are the same in science, entertainment, finance, and daily life. . . .
. . .
To understand predictions, we need to introduce a few very important ideas: accuracy and precision; time; probability and statistics; and the scientific method. . . .
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So, here then, is what it really means to make a prediction: A prediction is a statement of the probabilities that some things will happen at certain times in the future, where the things that can happen and the times are specified to some precision, and the probabilities are determined through the scientific method, and can be checked against the facts. . . .
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If you cannot calculate a probability, and check it against the facts, then you haven't made a prediction, you've made a guess. Confusing a guess with a prediction is the first fallacy of forecasting. . . .
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Forecasting is a science. Knowing what predictions really are, we will explain how to make predictions more and more precise, powerful, and valuable, using examples in science, technology, finance, politics, and entertainment.
Here is an
early version (made in 2002), beta preview and experiment,
presenting the introduction to HOW TO PREDICT THE FUTURE.
And here is a brief audio excerpt about the importance of getting the facts right, called Facts Happen!
WHO SHOULD ATTEND THIS SHOW
This show is for a popular
audience interested -
· in the practical benefits of predicting the future;
· in sophisticated methods of planning;
· in the facts of life as we know them on earth;
· in science, technology, business, entertainment, and practical information;
· in exercising the mind;
· and in being awed and amazed by the universe we live in.
It includes the same popular audience that reads news magazines and non-fiction books; students in High School and College; business people involved in any kind of planning, scheduling, and predictions; and anyone who thinks ahead.
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